The fracture in Indian politics

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From political break-ups and a student protest that has taken on a life of its own to complex geopolitics and an ethnic conflict the mainland would rather forget, this week in Indian politics was anything but quiet.

The fracture in Indian politics

Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis declared, “Whenever I undertake an operation, I complete it fully.” His reference to ‘Operation Tiger’ — a purported effort to engineer political defections in Maharashtra — did not sound like a punchline but a boast, with little regard for public perception. But not all the credit can go to him. There is, after all, a larger pattern at work.

In the past two months, three major opposition parties — the Aam Aadmi Party, the Trinamool Congress and the Shiv Sena (UBT) — have recorded high-profile rebellions and the eventual split up. In yet another irony, the very loophole that Raghav Chadha sought to close as a newly elected MP in 2022 became the mechanism that enabled seven of them to make the leap to the BJP. Chadha had pushed for a stronger Tenth Schedule to prevent “horse-trading”, calling it a “blot on our democracy”. His warning now reads almost prophetic: “The law that was made to end the politics of defection currently facilitates defection.”

Soon, as many as 20 politicians from Mamata Banerjee’s TMC jumped to the NDA. The split in Shiv Sena (UBT) followed shortly after. In total, 33 confirmed opposition MPs have moved to NDA’s side. The reasons cited pointed to internal rift but were broadly similar. Some other reports pointed to intensified scrutiny by the ED and CBI, and a few even referenced an “auction”. Now, rumours are rife about tensions within the Samajwadi Party too.

With the near-collapse of three political parties, the subversion of electoral mandates, and allegations of horse-trading, the BJP-led NDA’s strength in the Lok Sabha stands at 319, at least 38 short of a majority. In the Rajya Sabha, it stands at 148, just eight short of the majority mark of 163 — the constitutional amendment threshold.

The choreography of reassurance — NEET and beyond

Military logistics, a ban on the Telegram app, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi delaying his convoy from the airport to avoid disrupting traffic for students headed to exam centres, a gesture that received generous coverage. “Special cooling zones” for students in the capital and free tickets on DTC buses. The list of government measures to secure the NEET re-test is extensive, but it stops short of one crucial step: holding the Education Minister accountable.

At Jantar Mantar, where the Cockroach Janta Party has pitched a camp to demand Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation, the protesters were granted an unusual reprieve. The Delhi Police allowed the sit-in to continue beyond the permitted hours. The protest has since drawn support from farmers’ groups, queer collectives, and activists, while scenes of protesters dancing in the rain, sharing meals on pavement, and tossing diapers have turned it into a spectacle of dissent.

While the demand for Pradhan’s resignation remains unanswered, CBSE re-evaluation results have renewed concerns over examination irregularities. Around 1.6 lakh candidates opted for re-evaluation after discrepancies under the OSM system. As the re-evaluation results are released in phases, many students have reported significant score increases, but also alleged errors and serious discrepancies in the marking process.

Delhi-based advocate Vineet Jindal said on X that many students have shared copies of their answer sheets, alleging “serious errors in re-evaluation and marking”. He also claimed that some students who did not apply for re-evaluation in a subject still saw their marks reduced, and many are willing to seek justice.

Trouble in Modi-Trump paradise?

The Iran war may have created fissures in US-India ties that could outlast the conflict. The war, a Foreign Policy op-ed said, has “created political liabilities for Modi”. The killing of three Indian sailors in a US attack off the coast of Oman and the US having “torpedoed an Iranian vessel off the Indian coast, directly challenging the idea that India functions as a net security provider” in the region have led to a “visible domestic setback” for Modi.

The Trump administration has also “validated Pakistan by utilising its channels to negotiate with Iran”, the article argues, departing from Modi’s policy of “diplomatically isolating” the country.

Trump’s decision to rename the Indo-Pacific Command has also been read as a symbolic shift, weakening the idea that India sits at the centre of US’s Asia strategy. Meanwhile, at the G7 Summit in France, Modi’s trademark bear hug was conspicuously absent when the two leaders met.

Amid this, talks are ongoing for an interim trade agreement and a Bilateral Trade Agreement between the two countries. While both sides have “noted substantial progress”, there has been no headline announcement.

Missed a crucial story? A three-way conflict in Manipur

Manipur, which has been embroiled in violent ethnic conflict between the Kukis and the Meiteis for the past three years, has now drawn in a third group — the Nagas. The story has consistently slipped from the mainstream media’s attention even as conflict deepens over land, identity, and residency rights.

The latest fault line emerged as the Kuki community intensified its demand for a separate administration, with some areas of the proposed “Kukiland” purportedly including Naga ancestral territories.

At least 48 civilians were abducted by Kuki and Naga groups after clashes on May 13, in which three church leaders were killed. Many continue to be held captive by the rival groups. The three killed had been trying to broker peace between the two communities.

The situation continues to remain volatile. Kuki demonstrators enforced a highway blockade this week, clashing with security forces along NH-37 and leaving at least three critically injured. Anger and protests in Imphal have also intensified over the National Investigation Agency’s arrests of members of Arambai Tenggol, an armed Meitei group. The state government has now said it is “trying to avoid arresting” members of the group while focusing on recovering firearms looted from the police.

Normalcy remains a far cry in the state. Yet, the central government has remained silent, with locals accusing it of “indifference”.

Earlier this month, the Centre approved the deployment of two Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) units in Manipur for operations against armed militants. Trained in jungle warfare and guerrilla tactics, CoBRA is known for their anti-Naxal operations.

The Decifer follows the news — and also decodes it for you.

This week, we unpacked the fault lines running through Indian political parties, the politics behind Punjab’s sacrilege controversy, Delhi’s EV policy, and the AI-driven disruption in the IT sector. Decipher all this and more, here.

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