India may have produced enough military plutonium to make between 140 and 225 nuclear warheads, while its assembled arsenal could comprise up to 190 warheads, according to a new assessment by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
The assessment, published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, estimates that India had produced about 730 kg of weapon-grade plutonium by the beginning of 2026, with an uncertainty of about 170 kg.
“India may have produced enough military plutonium for 140 to 225 nuclear warheads and might have assembled up to 190,” the authors of the assessment, Hans M Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns and Mackenzie Knight-Boyle, said.
The estimate is based on an assumption that about four kg of plutonium would be required for each warhead. The authors, however, cautioned that the calculation carries significant uncertainties, particularly because the designs and yields of India's nuclear warheads are not publicly known.
The authors said the plutonium figure should not be interpreted as meaning that India currently possesses 225 assembled nuclear weapons. Rather, it represents the potential number of warheads that could theoretically be produced from the estimated stockpile of military plutonium.
FAS estimates that India might have assembled up to 190 warheads. The assessment said the country's nuclear arsenal continues to expand as it develops new land-, air- and sea-based delivery systems.
India's nuclear arsenal is not officially disclosed. The country has maintained that its nuclear posture is based on credible minimum deterrence and a no-first-use policy.
The assessment also said India's nuclear weapons capability could expand further as the country increases plutonium production. Its authors noted that India's fast breeder reactor programme could potentially “increase significantly the amount of plutonium available for India’s nuclear warhead stockpile”.
The new estimate marks an increase from FAS's 2024 assessment, which estimated that India had produced enough military plutonium for between 130 and 210 warheads and had likely assembled around 172.
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